检测、检验与认证行业（TIC行业）趋势
行业趋势为市场带来的的影响不尽相同，但可以肯定的是，广泛有利的行业条件将使所有行业参与者受益，而在检测、检验与认证行业中特定类型的市场参与者（例如，私募投资人、独立实验室或大型上市公司）将获得超出平均水平的收益。
当下的全球行业监管环境中，无论是法规数量还是监管复杂性皆持续提高。企业已经发现，如果不依靠第三方专业机构在深度和广度方面的协助，将越来越难以实现合规。而新的法规一旦颁布将很难在未来被废除或简化。所以，随着时间的推移，大多数国家的监管框架将变得越来越严格，从而为所有TIC行业的服务提供商创造了更大的潜在市场。
全球行业监管环境的变化受到许多客观存在的因素的影响，本文中将一一为您解析。
Human rights issues, human health and safety
Recent years have seen a greater focus on human health and safety in the workplace, public places, and consumer products (e.g., expanding hazardous substances lists, changing labeling requirements, etc.). Increasingly cognizant consumers, voters, and citizens demand sustainable and ethical sourcing, without forced labor or dangerous working conditions.
Many of the most dangerous work environments are found toward the beginning of corporations’ supply chains (e.g., in mines, fields, or emerging economy worksites), and thus are “unseen” by most stakeholders. Because working conditions in these areas are difficult to assess, third-party TIC service providers with special skill-sets and a vested interested in maintaining their reputations are often engaged to investigate these “ends” of the value and supply chain.
Increased environmental awareness, resulting from growing populations, rapid urbanization, and increasingly frequent resource shortages (e.g., water and food), forest fires, and other similar impacts of global climate change.
The emergence of new, revolutionary, and potentially disruptive technologies, including blockchain, artificial intelligence, and genetically modified organisms (e.g., fruits, vegetables, and proteins).
Each of these technologies offer promise (e.g., enhanced supply chain visibility, workforce augmentation / process automation, and higher crop/farmer yields, respectively), but also present new challenges that should be monitored during their early-stage implementation in order to be better understood.
Verdict: Favorable trend for all industry participants
Large public strategics slowing their M&A activity for the first time since before 2013
While industry consolidation will continue, the pace is anticipated to slow. First, the largest industry acquirers are becoming increasingly focused on integrating prior-years’ acquisitions and generating organic growth, leading to higher expected margins and more free cash flow for debt pay down.
Second, fewer differentiated assets exist in the marketplace after a period of rampant consolidation. If valuation multiples remain high (as expected), buy-or-build decisions by the industry’s consolidators will increasingly favor the latter in cases where a target’s testing services are replicable.
Verdict:
- Favorable for PE acquirers looking to enter the space or pursue a rollup strategy
- Unfavorable for sellers of undifferentiated assets
Cutting-edge technology continues to change and influence the industry
The industry’s leading players are in the early stages of implementing artificial intelligence to automate their most tedious and repetitive laboratory activities, leveraging their IT infrastructure as well as access to a nearly unlimited amount of analyzable data.
Concurrently, blockchain technology is providing a never-before-available level of traceability and transparency, most applicable in assurance and certification applications (e.g., following food from farm to processing facility to grocery store / restaurant / table).
Finally, virtual reality and drone technologies increasingly allow for off-site / remote “virtual visits” and inspection. These technologies are just beginning to find use in the industry, but promise to offer cost-reducing possibilities, including lower travel charge-backs to clients and more efficient skilled personnel utilization for those participants willing to spend the time and resources required to implement these solutions.
Verdict: Favorable for industry participants with the scale to take advantage
Hub-and-spoke strategies are the wave of the future
Consistent with their pursuit of organic growth, large industry players continue to pursue hub-and-spoke laboratory strategies that include greenfield specialized regional locations, which will increase competition for smaller local operators. For example, Eurofins added 15 new labs in 2018 and 102 since 2014. Industry participants with scalable back- and front-office systems have the easiest path to pursuing this start-up laboratory strategy.
Verdict: Unfavorable for small industry participants
In summary, TIC sector trends bode well for all industry participants. However, TIC service providers with scale and/or unique attributes will disproportionately benefit from these favorable trends. As large sector participants balance buy versus build decisions, valuations are expected to temper on a relative basis for companies lacking differentiated service offerings, scale, or other unique characteristics.
Finally, PE investors will continue to find investment avenues into the TIC space, but in most cases will be forced to build platforms incrementally via a series of sub-scale (i.e., under $5 million EBITDA) target acquisitions, since most mid-sized ($10+ million EBITDA) TIC companies have already been rolled up or have proven unwilling sellers despite being regularly approached by interested parties. Further, even sub-scale targets are likely to require high-single or low-double digit multiples on EBITDA to trade, so PE investors will need to take a longer-term, more creative view on valuation to find buy-and-build success in the industry.
